US President Barack Obama delivered a keynote speech to the Muslim world from Cairo University in 2009. (File photo)
In June 2009, Barack Obama delivered a keynote speech in Cairo. Aimed at the Muslim world, Obama, who had just taken over as the first African-American president of the United States, called for a “new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world.”
An American president who thought Egypt was important enough to be the stage from where he delivered a speech on how to “re-energize the dialogue with the Muslim world” made another major policy speech just less than two years later on late Thursday. This time, however, the message was not delivered from, but directed at Egypt, at least in part.
While emphasizing support efforts for reform across the Middle East and North Africa, including “transitions toward democracy,” Mr. Obama once again referred to a new beginning—“a new chapter in American diplomacy.”
Before analyzing his remarks and announcements, it is only fair to recognize the Obama touch in the speech, which gives it a semblance of balance by virtue of addressing both friends and adversaries in a fairly just fashion, which is usually missing in many US policy announcements.
Yet, one also cannot but help wonder how many more “beginnings” the US will make in the region and whether or when these will have happy endings. Or did President Obama answer this question when he said: “It will be years before this story reaches its end.”
More seriously though, four factors determine the timing of Obama’s speech, and therein also lies the subjective analysis of the meaning in the message.
First, domestically, Osama Bin Laden’s death has ensured terrific approval ratings for Obama. At 60 percent, it is at its highest point in two years and more than half of Americans feel he deserves to be re-elected.
Buoyed by this sentiment, a more confident Mr. Obama had the luxury of focusing on international politics, putting aside domestic, political and economic compulsions.
Second, very few know the importance of the economy and its interplay on politics better than Mr. Obama does. As much as his ratings have soared this month, the state of the American economy—with 15 million Americans being unemployed—was the main reason behind the Democrats’ loss in the mid-term polls in late 2010.
As the new political dispensations in Egypt and Tunisia look for fresh ideas to tackle old problems, the process of their legitimacy strengthening or weakening rests not just on ensuring prevalence of political freedom, but translating the economic dreams of the people into reality. The sooner this is done the better, lest the euphoria of revolution could fade ineffectively.
Third, as Libya and Syria experience various degrees of protests and counter-actions by their governments, Mr. Obama’s speech may be intended to bolster the morale of the protesters that their mission is still unaccomplished. Given the fundamental differences between Washington on the one hand and Tripoli and Damascus on the other—with the latter aligned with Tehran—the protests reaching their logical democratic conclusion is important for the US administration.
Fourth, in terms of foreign policy, it was imperative that President Obama address US discomfort with the new process of Egypt-Iran realignment that is under way currently, and how it could develop into a Cairo–Tehran–Baghdad axis if left unattended.
Any or both these scenarios, irrespective of intensity, would not only weaken US hegemony over Egypt, but also hold the possibility of fundamentally altering both the US influence, and thereby the international relations, of the region.
Analyzing the economic benefits that Mr. Obama offered in his speech, it is indeed questionable how $1 billion in debt forgiveness for Egypt as well as $1 billion in loan guarantees will help a country that is estimated to have a GDP (purchasing power parity) of $500 billion.
Even Mr. Obama’s stimulus package announced for the United States in 2009, which was worth nearly a trillion dollars, has made negligible impact on the US economy as it stands. The Egypt package also pales in comparison to four Gulf Cooperation Council countries launching a $20-billion aid fund for Oman and Bahrain.
Is this then a token of appreciation for a job done without or with very little US involvement?
More importantly, one could reflect on the efficacy of economic assistance to crisis-ridden states by drawing a parallel with the effectiveness of American aid to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Arguing that military power alone is not going to solve the problems, the Congress approved about $20 billion direct US aid and military reimbursements. In Afghanistan, Mr. Obama is requesting US spending just on economic development, aside from military spending, to be increased from $2 billion in 2009 and 2010 to $5 billion in 2011.
It is not difficult to assess the impact of these billions in both countries.
As a counter argument and as a way of highlighting an alternative, take the case of Africa. After decades, Africa’s real GDP grew by over 6 percent in 2007, outpacing the world economic growth of about 5 percent. This was considered just short of the 7 percent growth needed to reduce poverty. The transformation was not the result of increasing or better utilization of Western aid, but mutually beneficial and growing Asia-Africa economic engagement.
Equally, however, it is interesting to note that this economic improvement has not helped the African political systems evolve toward guaranteeing political and social stability. This, in some ways, exposes the lack of impact of the economic vibrancy on rudimentary political systems.
Thus, mere economic and political transition, as Mr. Obama emphasized, will not suffice in the final analysis. What the states in question require is drastic change in governance style. How the concerned opposition groups and protesters transform themselves from being agitators to becoming administrators will determine how this latest “American beginning” will move forward and towards a ‘happy ending’ in the Middle East.
(Dr N. Janardhan is a UAE-based political analyst, and author of “Boom Amid Gloom – The Spirit of Possibility in the 21st Century Gulf” (Ithaca Press), scheduled to be released in mid-2011. He can be reached at: njanardhan71@gmail.com)
source : alarabiya
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