One Global State: The Possibilities Today

Thursday, March 31, 2011

From the time of dropping the ‘Little Boy‘ and ‘Fat Man‘ back in 1945 in WWII, the end of British Empire has been confirmed. It also confirmed America‘s edge over every other power. Since WW2, America‘s control of the international situation has been built upon her military and economic strengths. However, after more than 50 years, the US does not enjoy the same primacy today as it did prior to its invasion of Iraq. The invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan have affected the capabilities of the USA and depleted her resources. The global economic crisis further exacerbated America‘s standing in the world, as it turned towards socialist intervention to prop up its economy. Yet it failed to stop economic collapse as America has already entered into a new recession starting from July 2010. Because of such challenges America‘s presence in the world is being considered as overstretched and untenable.

America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are taking toll on US soldiers, as the latest statistics shows 1 out of every 9 American soldiers leaves the army on a medical discharge due to mental disorder. Paul Martin from Peace Action commented that “we have 100,000 troops and a third of them suffer some sort of mental health disease and half of those suffer multiple health disease”. The army alone saw a 64% increase in those forced out due to mental illness between 2005 and 2009, the numbers equal to 1 in 9 of all medical discharges. The soldiers who are discharged for having both a mental and physical disability increased by174% during the last 5 years until 2009, according to army statistics. This clearly indicates the declining morale and mental strength of American soldiers in fighting a ‘War on Islam‘.

Therefore, the reality of the world is that, USA is no longer a respected superpower; rather it is a hegemonic one. Despite bringing the most sophisticated, advanced technological change, USA is ethically, economically, strategically, politically a corrupt and bankrupt nation. Its own people don‘t have faith on its government, and on its system. The very ideological tenets of its society are being questioned by its own people and followers. Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, a new BBC poll has found widespread dissatisfaction with free-market capitalism (James Robbins, BBC 9th Nov, 2009).

In the global poll for the BBC World Service, only 11% of those questioned across 27 countries said that it was working well! Moreover, the honeymoon slogan of ‗change‘ in America by Barack Obama has quickly turned into nightmare of betrayal. In 2009 election, Barack Obama who had a 76% approval, unprecedented in US history, now has only 42% approval. Fox news reports that in some cases he has less than 30% approval, while young black voters even called him a hypocrite‘.

David S Mason (2009) in his book ,The End of the American Century‘ has observed that, ―The United States is at the end of the period of global leadership and domination that we‘ve enjoyed for the last 50 years or so. The country is bankrupt economically. We‘ve lost our edge in terms of politics, economics, socially. We no longer compare well with other countries around the world, and we‘re not admired as we once were by countries around the world. And we‘re not viewed as a model for economic and political development, as we once were. So this really marks a global shift in world history, both for the United States and the rest of the world. It is a gloomy picture, and this wasn‘t an easy book to write for that reason. But I think the facts speak for themselves. If you look at the United States, both in terms of comparing us to 20 years ago or in comparing us to other developed countries in the world, the United States doesn‘t come out on top on almost any measure anymore. And this has long-term implications that are going to affect the way we live and the role we play in the world.

As a result of America‘s weakness, the challenges stemming from her competitors within the capitalist ideology have grown in size and scope and today are much stronger. However, these countries do not threaten USA‘s supremacy because they do not form their own ideological vision. Germany and Japan despite their economic might do not control the world because they have suspended their global ambitions after the WWII,whereas India duly works as a servant to its master USA to achieve regional objectives. Russia on the other hand despite some of its anti-USA strategy works only to become regional power and safeguard its backyard. Finally China, a 5000 years old regional power having so much economic development and military capabilities still cannot shape up the world, because it has no global ambition. So the USA still managed to remain as the sole global state because no other ideological nation with vast amount of population, economic and military power, size and control over strategic locations of the world, and above all an ideology to challenge the USA has emerged. Therefore, it is unlikely the US will disintegrate like the Soviet Union or cease to be the world‘s power as what happened to Britain except without the rise of another foremost leading state.

As per China, it‘s economic, military and capabilities are far better than the Russian. However, her economic development is mostly based on reliance on Middle East and African resources and on USA markets. Moreover, its territorial assimilation can easily be exploited by USA or any other country with global ambition. The failure of China in the issue of American project ‗Taiwan‘ clearly shows lack of Chinese guts to be a global state. Moreover, Hongkong enjoys full autonomy which further provides evidences in this issue. Its province of Tibet‘ like Taiwan is on the verse of annexation. Moreover, the systematic cleansing of Muslims in Xinxiang has further complicated its territorial integrity. Other than these facts for more than 5000 years China was a dominant regional power however, she never had the ambition to be the foremost leading state of the world. China is every day becoming more and more like Japan and becoming an economic power. However an economy without political aims and global ambitions will turn a nation into a trade powerhouse never a global power (Adnan Khan, 2009).

As for Russia, Steven Rosefielde from University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill in his book ‗Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower‘ suggested that, ‘Russia intends to re-emerge as a full-fledged superpower before 2010 by challenging America and China and potentially threatening a new arms race’ pointing to the war in Ossetia and debate about Eastern European missile defense system by NATO. Rosefielde further argues that,” Russia has an intact military-industrial complex…and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential.Russia indeed has managed to take advantage of America‘s weakness and strengthen itself in the former Soviet republics, but not beyond that. In reality Russia is still very far from having the necessary economy and geopolitical control needed to pose a direct challenge to the USA.”

Moreover, facts constraining Russia’s rise to foremost leading state status includes a lack of important allies, a powerful European Union and China on its border, relatively small and failing economy, and of course a relatively small, and shrinking population which is very important in today‘s eco-political set up.

Other powers like Germany, India, etc leave no room for discussion as they neither have global ambition nor the resources of all kind to remove USA from the foremost leading state position. In fact all these countries somehow help USA to maintain its domination within their respective regions. Moreover, it is very important to note that, a unique leading global state can only rise with the adoption of an alternative ideology‘ different form the current one. All these countries who are competing now do not have a different and unique ideological vision to offer to mankind. Rather these intense visible competitions are simply an exercise of power in regional and global scale for having a share of global resources‘ to aid their economic and other strategic objectives in order to become a more respectful global player rather than to become a unique global state.

Having said that, however, a number of academic journals, research papers, policy statements, western government policy papers, global public opinion, think tank and intelligence reports etc over the past 10 yearshave repeatedly concluded that, there is a silent, far reaching, deep-seated, and ground breaking change taking place in the world. This is none other than an intellectual and political revival in the Islamic world.

Moreover its territorial assimilation can easily be exploited by USA or any other country with global ambition.The failure of China in the issue of American project‘ Taiwan clearly shows lack of Chinese guts to be a superpower. Moreover, Hongkong enjoys full autonomy; further provide evidences in this issue.

Alec Rasizade (2003), M. R. Woodward (2004), Thomas R. McCabe (2007), J. O‘Loughlin (2009), Mustafa Aydin, Çınar Özen (2010), Rachel Rinaldo (2010), and Sanjida O’Connell (2010) in their studies have concluded that, “the rise of Islam and Khilafah is an inevitable reality‘ today”.

According to J. O‘Loughlin (2009),” the last 500 years have been marked by cycles of superpower rises and falls, with a lasting focus on sea power as the mechanism to allow global reach. After the fall of Utmani Khilafah state and then the decline of UK in the early twentieth century and the failed attempts by Japan and Germany to achieve superpower status, the bipolar world of US–Soviet competition marked the stereotypical superpower confrontation. After the Soviet implosion, the US achieved a lead over other large states never achieved before. But after 15 years of this hegemony, the US leadership is now challenged and superpower competition is again a real possibility”.

Hence, pointing to this bizarre circumstances, US national intelligence estimates have continued to reiterate the demand for Islam by the Islamic ummah around the world as one of the topmost threat to American security and national interest. The political and ideological struggle (not the material one) carried by the Islamic ummah has reached to a level that, the demand for Khilafah and Shari‘ah, under the Islamic State is the biggest ideological challenge USA is facing. The former US Vice-President, Dick Cheney on 23rd Feb, 2007clearly stating that ―“they have ultimate aim to establish a Caliphate covering a region from Spain, across North Africa, through the Middle East and South Asia, all the way to Indonesia -and it wouldn’t stop there”. Moreover, former British Home secretary, Charles Clarke, said in a speech to the US think tank the Heritage Foundation “there can be no negotiation about the recreation of the Caliphate; there can be no negotiation about the imposition of Shari‘ah law”.

The threat posed by the potential Khilafah was continually reiterated by the Bush administration and it was one of the reasons for both the Iraq and Afghan wars. General Richard Dannatt, advisor to the UK prime minister David Cameron and retired UK armed forces chief, confessed in an interview to the BBC Radio 4 that the objective behind the war in Afghanistan is “there is an Islamist agenda which if we don’t oppose it and face it off in Southern Afghanistan, or Afghanistan, or in South Asia, then frankly that influence will grow. It could well grow, and this is an important point, we could see it moving from South Asia to the Middle East to North Africa, and to the high water mark of the Islamic caliphate in the 14th, 15th century”.

Finally, with these realities in the ground and political statements made around the capitals in the West, the ground is set to explore the conditions of Islamic world in terms of the catalysts like population, adherents, strength and diversity in culture, size and control over continents, economic and military power, political will and ideological strength in order to assess if the Islamic ummah unified under Islamic Khilafah State presents a realistic possibility to emerge as the foremost and unique global state of 21st century‘.

Adapted from the book “Emerging World Order – The Islamic Khilafah State“