Libyan dictator under popular siege

Sat Feb 26, 2011 7:41PM

Hassan Hanizadeh

Libyan ruler Colonel Muammar Gaddafi

Popular protests in different cities in Libya have extended to the Capital city of Tripoli, and the siege Gaddafi is under gets tighter and tighter.

Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and his sons, Saif al-Islam, Al-Saadi, al-Mutassim and Khamis are now in the Bab al-Azizia military barracks located west of Tripoli, fighting with the revolutionary youth.

His fifth son Saif-al-Arab Gaddafi has joined the revolutionaries, and the Libyan dictator's cousin Ahmed Qadhaf Al Dam, who was one of the members of Gaddafi's close circle, has defected to Egypt.

The Libyan opposition leaders believe that Gaddafi's political life is nearing its end, and he will have to raise the white flag in the coming days.

But the fact that the victory of the Libyan revolution might come at a very heavy price has caused the Libyan people and other countries to worry, since the number of casualties has already surpassed 2,000.

Political analysts offer different views about the US and the West's silence regarding the Libyan people's revolution.

Western analysts believe that some European leaders have taken a cautious stance towards recent events in Libya because of their interests in Libya and their participation in the country's major development projects.

Britain, France, the US and Italy actively participate in Libya's oil extraction projects in al-Burayqah, al-Sedrah and Ras Lanuf, therefore the overthrow of Gaddafi would endanger the interests of these countries.

On the other hand, the high quality of Libya's oil, the closeness of the country's oil terminals to the Mediterranean Sea and its lower price compared to the OPEC basket oil price has increased the greed of Western countries to plunder the country's oil resources.

Another view is that the US and the West are trying to give the Libyan dictator leeway in massacring his people to achieve their own objectives.

One of these objectives is to provide grounds for Libya to fall into anarchy to pave the way for the intervention of NATO forces in the country.

The US plans to get permission for attacking Libya through the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council and placing Libya under the Article 7 of the UN Charter.

Based on Article 7 of the UN Charter, the situation in Libya would be considered dangerous for global peace, and foreign forces would be allowed to intervene to counter insecurities in Libya. The intervention of NATO forces, however, would certainly complicate the situation in Libya and would provide the grounds for a civil war.

On the other hand, Gaddafi, who has ordered more than 2,000 of the revolutionaries to be killed, is still resisting against his nation.

In recent days, Colonel Gaddafi has hired more than 50-thousand foreign mercenaries to oppress the country's revolutionaries.

Colonel Gaddafi has also devised various scenarios to suppress the Libyan people's revolution, the most important of which is to create civil war among the country's different tribes like Yemen, and to turn Libya into a country such as Somalia.

Since some of the Libyan tribes such as Ghadafa, which Gaddafi belongs to, as well as Amazigh and Tuareg, which are located in the southwestern part of the country, are loyal to Colonel Gaddafi and are ready to defend the Libyan dictator, the social and political grounds for a civil war are provided.

According to informed observers in Libya, it is possible that Colonel Gaddafi will have to escape to his oil rich birthplace of Surt with the help of armed men from Ghadafa, Amazigh and Tuareg tribes.

The Libyan dictator will then take control of oil terminals, wells and facilities in this district with the help of armed tribes and will establish a new emirate in southwestern Libya.

It is hard to determine the fate of Libya due to the complexities of the country's tribal texture.

It is obvious that unless the Libyan revolutionaries take the Bab al-Azizia military barracks, the country will move towards a long-term tribal war, similar to that in Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan and Rwanda.

The fate of Gaddafi will not be better that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and the Libyan dictator will have little chance to escape the siege of his opponents.

It is expected that Gaddafi will stand against the Libyan revolutionaries until the last moment and will finally get killed by those around him.

HH/MYA/AKM/HGH

Source:presstv