North Sudan army takes control of oil-rich Abyei, raising prospects of war

Saturday, May 21st, 2011 | Posted by Noor

Former southern army general General Peter Gadet, left. (AFP photo)

The northern Sudanese army has taken control of main town of the disputed oil-producing Abyei region, the state television reported late on Saturday, adding that President Omar Hassan Al Bashir had ordered the dissolution of the region’s administrative council.

UN spokeswoman Hua Jiang earlier said Sudan had deployed around 15 tanks in Abyei. The spokesman said that gunshots could be heard in the town but it was unclear what exactly was happening.

Shooting broke out late Thursday as UN peacekeepers escorted 200 northern Sudan Armed Forces out of the contested area, with both armies accusing each other of starting the fight.

The north and the south have blamed each other for starting the fight. For all but 11 years since Sudan became independent in 1956, a civil war has been fought in the country, Africa’s largest by land mass. Abyei contributes more than a quarter of Sudan’s daily oil production of 480,000 barrels. Sudan’s proven crude oil reserves are nearly 2 billion barrels.

The south is important to the north because that’s where most of the country’s oil is produced. But refineries are in the north, as is the main pipeline carry oil for exports.

Fighting in Abyei has pitted former civil war enemies against each other since January when it was due to vote on its future alongside a referendum on the south’s secession.

But the plebiscite was postponed indefinitely as the north and south disagreed on who should be eligible to vote in an area where conflicted loyalties and land disputes keep tensions high.

The Abyei Area covers 10,460 kilometers in the State of Northern Bahr el Ghazal in South Sudan. The issue of whether Abyei will remain a part of Northern Sudan or secede with the South is heavily contested between the North and South. As Abyei is home to both the ethnically Southern Dinka Ngok and the ethnically Northern Misseriya who rely on Abyei to graze their animals.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 determined that the question of whether Abyei should remain with Sudan or secede with the South should be decided through a referendum. However, while a referendum has been agreed it has not been conducted due to a dispute between the Northern and Southern Governments.

The North wants the Misseriya to be able to vote in the referendum, while the South wants to exclude the Misseriya herdsmen from participating in the vote. It is unlikely that the vote will go ahead without an agreement on who is allowed to vote.

In the past the boundaries of the Abyei region had been in dispute that erupted into violence and threatened the CPA. The North and South agreed to settle the dispute over Abyei’s boundaries through arbitration. The international arbitration process redrew Abyei’s boundaries in 2009 and made it significantly smaller than what was claimed by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), extending no further north than 10°10′00” N. in Southern Kordofan. This revised border has since been endorsed and accepted by both parties to the dispute.

Philip Aguer, spokesman for the south’s army, told Agence France-Presse that fighting continued for a third day and accused the north’s Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) of bombing raids.

“The SAF have bombed several places in Abyei,” the SPLA spokesman said.

The United Nations called on Saturday for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” in Sudan’s contested border region.

The UN also urged all parties to “protect civilians” and called for “withdrawal of all unauthorized forces” from the area, in line with earlier agreements.

The appeal came as a UN Security Council delegation began a tour of three African states to assess peace and security threats, with a special focus on Abyei.

“We strongly encourage all parties to resume dialogue toward reaching a lasting political settlement,” the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) said.

Abyei’s future is the most sensitive of a raft of issues that the two sides are struggling to reach agreement on before the south is recognized as an independent state in July.

(Mustapha Ajbaili, an Al Arabiya editor, can be reached at: Mustapha.ajbaili@mbc.net)

source : alarabiya

‘Yemeni opposition signs (P)GCC deal'

Saturday, May 21st, 2011 | Posted by Noor

Yemeni protesters shout slogans demanding the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh during a rally in Sana'a on May 21, 2011.

Yemen’s opposition has reportedly signed an agreement with the government to bring an end to more than three months of political crisis in the most impoverished state in the Arab world.

Yemeni opposition sources said on Saturday that they have inked a deal mediated by the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council ([P]GCC) for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down, AFP reported.

However, Yemeni opposition leaders declined to make a statement about the signing of the deal, saying an announcement would be made on Sunday.

One opposition figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, said opposition leaders held a meeting on Saturday with the (P)GCC secretary general, the ambassadors of the United States, Britain, and the United Arab Emirates, and an envoy of the European Union.

He neither confirmed nor denied that the accord had been signed, but said “the important thing is that the president sign” the agreement.

Tareq al-Shami, a spokesman for Saleh’s ruling General People’s Congress, said the president would sign the deal on Sunday. The party’s secretary general, Sultan al-Barakani, also confirmed that the government side would sign on Sunday, adding that the opposition had refused to sign the agreement in the presidential palace.

Under the proposal, Saleh would hand power over to the vice president within 30 days after the signing of the agreement in exchange for immunity from prosecution by parliament.

A national unity government led by a prime minister from the opposition would then be formed, and a presidential election would be held 60 days after Saleh’s departure.

A commission, made up of members of the current government and the opposition and representatives of the US, the EU, and the UN, would be established to “supervise the implementation of the agreement over 30 days.”

Hundreds of thousands of people have turned out for regular demonstrations in Yemen’s major cities since late January, calling for an end to corruption and unemployment and demanding the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in office since 1978.

On Saturday, Saleh described the agreement as “in fact purely a coup operation,” but said his regime “will deal positively with it for the sake of the motherland.”

He also warned “friends in the United States and the European Union” that the departure of his regime could give a boost to al-Qaeda in Yemen and accused some of the country’s oil-rich Arab neighbors of funding the anti-regime protests.

MRS/AGB/HGL

source : press tv

Obama wants Cameron to back Palestinian state with pre-1967 borders

Saturday, May 21st, 2011 | Posted by Noor

US president will use visit to London to keep pressure on Israel for Middle East peace deal

The then senator Barack Obama talks with Tory leader David Cameron at Westminster in 2008. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Barack Obama will seek a joint Middle East agreement with David Cameron, insisting that a Palestinian state should be based on pre-1967 borders – a proposal rejected by Israel’s prime minister as “unrealistic” and “indefensible”.

The issue will be raised in private talks between the two men during the state visit by Obama and his wife to London, only the third by a US president in 100 years. Afghanistan, Libya, relations with Pakistan and the global economy – as well as the vacancy for the top job at the IMF – will also make up the agenda.

Despite the outright rejection by the Israeli premier, Binyamin Netanyahu, of a Palestinian state based on the borders that existed before the Six Day War, when Israel captured and occupied the West Bank and Gaza, Obama has already secured the political backing of the United Nations, European Union and Russia who, with America, are collectively known as the “quartet”.

Signalling his determination to keep up pressure on Israel, Obama will be looking to enlist the public support of the UK prime minister. The aim is, in large part, to persuade the Palestinian leadership not to go to the UN in September seeking symbolic backing for an independent state.

The coming meeting between the two men follows evidence of a hardening of criticism of Israel by London. On the eve of the Obamas’ arrival, Middle East minister Alistair Burt accused Israel of “unhelpful and destabilising activity” in announcing the building of 1,500 new settlement units in East Jerusalem ahead of a speech by the president on the Middle East on Friday.

“I am deeply disappointed with Israel’s announcement on 19 May to build up to 1,500 settlement units in the East Jerusalem settlements of Har Homa and Pisgat Ze’ev,” Burt said.

“This decision came on the same day as Obama’s important speech on the Middle East, which set out a clear path towards peace between the Palestinians and Israelis. Settlement activity is a recognised obstacle to this path. It is illegal under international law and should stop.

“The UK continues to call on Israel to cease unhelpful and destabilising activity and instead help build the conditions that allow meaningful negotiations to resume.”

UK sources said they expected a packed agenda, with the two leaders likely to set aside time to discuss the enhanced threat of global terrorism following the death of Osama bin Laden, progress in Afghanistan and the west’s strategy to oust Muammar Gaddafi from power in Libya.

Away from the formal agenda of talks, the president’s wife, Michelle, and the prime minister’s wife, Samantha, will host a barbecue in the Downing Street garden on Wednesday evening for British and US troops who have served in Afghanistan and Iraq, including some who have suffered injuries.

The president and prime minister will attend and lend a hand dishing up the food. “They will be helping with the serving. There will be British sausages and burgers on the menu,” said a spokeswoman.

The president and his wife, who will begin their tour of Europe in Ireland on Monday, will stay at Buckingham Palace for the UK leg of the visit, which begins on Tuesday and ends on Thursday.

They will be met by the Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall before flying to the palace. On Tuesday evening there will be a state dinner at the palace preceded by meetings with Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband.

Cameron and Obama will hold further talks on Wednesday, when the president will also address both houses of parliament in Westminster Hall. He will lay a wreath at the Grave of the Unknown Soldier in Westminster Abbey.

Liberal Democrat sources expressed frustration yesterday at reports that Nick Clegg had been “snubbed” by the president. The Lib Dems say it was made clear that US protocol did not allow for the president to have a bilateral meeting with the Liberal leader in his role as deputy prime minister.

source : guardian

Libya’s Gaddafi Has Nowhere to Go

Friday, May 20th, 2011 | Posted by Noor

By Peter Apps
Political Risk Correspondent

The ICC indictment of Gaddafi and his close supporters looks to have further deepened his isolation, but may also make it harder for them to quit

(Reuters) – Beset by apparent defections, perhaps personally targeted by NATO and indicted for war crimes, Muammar Gaddafi is finding Libya’s war turning against him — but with nowhere obvious to go he may hang on regardless.

The International Criminal Court indictment of Gaddafi, his eldest son Saif al-Islam and spy chief Abdullah al-Senussi looks to have further deepened the Libyan leader’s diplomatic and political isolation, but may also make it harder for him and his close supporters to quit.

There are signs of diplomatic activity, which could be taken forward when G8 powers meet later this month, but analysts see NATO pressing ahead with its bombing campaign and thereby strengthening the rebels on the battlefield. But in any case, no quick end is seen.

While Libya’s opposition have made some small tactical gains particularly around the besieged town of Misrata, the broader conflict seems largely deadlocked. Russia has offered to mediate, but for now few believe the rebels or NATO would be willing to agree a ceasefire without Gaddafi’s exit.

Barring an internal coup or Gaddafi’s death in an air strike, most analysts believe the conflict could last months or longer with all combatants — Gaddafi, rebels and NATO powers — hoping the balance will slowly tip their way.

“There are indications that the coalition has targeted Gaddafi, although they cannot admit that,” said Henry Smith, Libya analyst for London-based consultancy Control Risks.

“If they were to succeed, it might prompt a change to the pattern of the conflict … Otherwise, it is still likely to be long and drawn out. There is little incentive at the moment for either side, particularly the opposition, to go for a negotiated settlement.”

There are signs of a slow bleeding of support from Gaddafi, both of low-level and higher ranking officials. This week, the rebels and a Tunisian security source said oil chief Shokri Ghanem had become the highest ranking officials to flee since foreign minister Moussa Koussa defected to Britain.

Libyan officials denied Ghanem had defected, saying he was still in his job and that if he had left the country he would be returning. They — along with Tunisian authorities — also denied reports Gaddafi’s wife and daughter had fled to Tunisia.

Few Options Left

Analysts said it was impossible to know the truth of what had happened, but that if immediate members of Gaddafi’s family had fled it might be that they were seeking safe haven with his blessing to avoid air strikes. Libya says Gaddafi’s youngest son and granddaughter were recently killed by NATO bombs.

Further defections of military leaders or family members would weaken Gaddafi, particularly if commanders on the eastern front surrendered allowing a swift rebel advance.

“The defection of Shokri Ghanem is a blow,” said Alan Fraser, regional analyst for risk consultancy AKE.

“However, it is not likely to change (Gaddafi’s) outlook. He will hang on as long as possible, with few other options at his disposal. It appears that only a very attractive offer — for example some sort of sanctuary inside or outside of Libya, free from prosecution, would persuade him to cede power.”

Gaddafi had few foreign safe haven options even before the ICC warrant. Some analysts have long suggested Venezuela or Zimbabwe as potential new homes for him. Russia could conceivably be another option, but most analysts suspect Moscow’s offer of mediation is more about trying to build regional influence than anything else.

If there were to be a major diplomatic push to end the conflict, it might happen at the G8 meeting due to be held at the end of May in France. President Nicolas Sarkozy has tried to use the conflict to paint himself as a global leader, almost certainly with an eye to presidential elections next year.

But most analysts say a more likely coalition strategy is to keep up strikes, try to gradually build the capabilities of the rebels and hope shortages, defections and growing shortages in Gaddafi’s territory produce discontent.

Months Not Years?

Worsening relations with Tunisia — which this week threatened to refer Libya to the UN Security Council over cross-border shelling — could make it harder for Gaddafi to bring in supplies. Both rebels and government sit on top of large oil reserves but both need refined products such as gasoline.

Research by Reuters energy and shipping reporters showed a Libyan-flagged tanker likely carrying gasoline headed for the government-control western Libyan port of Zawiyah. The shipment would not strictly speaking breach sanctions, experts said, because the shipping firm that owns it is not covered by the sanctions list that proscribes dealings with Libya’s national oil company.

Libya’s sovereign wealth fund and billions in assets linked to the Gaddafi family have been frozen under UN sanctions, but experts say the Libyan leader likely has further funds hidden away that will not have been blocked.

Eastern rebels have also been importing gasoline — and, many analysts suspect, weaponry — but have struggled to realize hopes of earning millions through their own oil exports.

Energy sources say it has proved almost impossible to find buyers, with most worried any purchase would breach sanctions intended to stop Gaddafi but which legally are seen to apply to rebel-help eastern Libya as well.

Western powers in particular are seen keen to tweak the sanctions regime to increase pressure on Gaddafi and create a special fund to transfer cash to the rebels. But even long-term supporters of military intervention talk down prospects for a swift end to the war.

More military action, they say, is more likely than a deal.

“None of this will come easily or quickly — Gaddafi is old school and has been preparing for a fight all his life,” said Daniel Korski, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “(But) it is looking more likely that the conflict will last months not years.”

source : www.onislam.net